Vanguard's September 2019 Outlook
Even though the recent 2-year/10-year yield curve inversion spooked the markets, Vanguard doesn't expect a recession in the next 12 months. Vanguard feels that there is a 40% chance of a U.S. Recession. As global growth continues to soften, all signs point to central banks lowering interest rates. U. S. trade tensions with China continue and remains unclear of any resolutions. Euro manufacturing is slowing. Brexit is still up in the air. With U.S.-China trade tensions continuing, expect modest spillover to global trade. The most attractive returns over the next ten years, maybe abroad.